As
I See It, by Jimmy Vaccaro
July 25, 2002
As the football season slowly unwinds across
our TV screens, part of the annual ritual is to
rank the top 10 teams, which is so much easier
in January than September. But waiting until it
is obvious who the best teams are would take all
the fun out of it.
It seems as if many of the picks are done by
rote, and are almost automatic, with some of the
voting sportswriters just following the herd.
That's why there is frequently a logjam among
the top 10, with the usual suspects assuming their
accustomed places year after year.
I prefer to analyze and review each team which
gives me a very different take on how the teams
should be ranked.
Note that I put the onus on the sportswriters
for the flawed selections. But there are some
very good gaming publications such as The Gold
Sheet, and Phil Steele's weekly newsletter, that
come closer to the real rankings than the press
would ever dream.
What I am trying to say is that anyone who is
involved in booking or betting at an above-average
level knows more about the teams' true rankings
than 80 percent of the voters.
I'm not belittling the writers or their predictions.
But invariably, they lean toward the biggest favorite
or simply reflect last year's final poll.
We all know that many of the top teams are strong
recruiters, and the term reload is used to describe
a team expected to easily replace key losses.
But that is sometimes a bit of a stretch in today's
game. It is important to be able to distinguish
between a team that is reloading and a team that
is simply not going to be as good as some writers
assume.
Even among the top teams, the talent level is
shrinking and replacing key players by a highly
touted freshman or juco isn't accomplished so
easily.
I would prefer to see the first top 10 list come
out in early October, which I believe would be
a much more accurate gauge of who the top teams
really are.
Having said all that, let me throw in my two
cents right now, and then we can check the scoreboard
in early January. One thing which will be quickly
apparent, is that I don't put much stock into
some of the early assumptions about who will be
donning the mythical crown after the Fiesta Bowl.
1. FLORIDA. I believe they are up for their two
early key matchups, with Miami (FL) on September
7 and Tennessee on the 21st.
2. OKLAHOMA. Yes, the defense took a hit with
the loss of Calmus and Williams, but it will still
be good, and the offense will be an improvement
over last year. Let's face it, Stoops can just
get the job done. I am a believer.
3. LOUISVILLE. Sometimes you just get a good
feel for a team that is quietly putting it all
together. The Cardinals will be like last year's
Maryland.
4. FLORIDA STATE. Even Bowden is crowing a little
over this year's squad. But with games against
tough teams like Louisville, Miami and Florida,
there is plenty of opportunity to stub your toe.
5. WASHINGTON. With Cody Pickett getting better
and the OL returning four out of 5 starters, this
team will put tremendous pressure on opponents
to trade points. The Huskies will be exceptional.
6. TEXAS. Despite two areas of concern, QB and
head coach, they are the most talented team in
the country.
7. MIAMI (FL). Good, yes. Very good, yes. National
champs, no. Just too many deficiencies to overcome,
even with Dorsey returning.
8. TEXAS TECH. Tough schedule. But with Kingsbury
under center and head coach Leach having three
years at the helm, he'll show why they lured him
to Lubbock from Oklahoma. Look for a big year
from the Red Raiders.
9. GEORGIA. With Super Soph Greene at the controls
and Spurrier gone, you never know. They are not
quite good enough to beat Florida, but everyone
else better be ready for a dog fight.
10. BOSTON COLLEGE. Even with the loss of stellar
RB Greene to the NFL, the Eagles are improved
over last year's team. QB St. Pierre with 25 TD
passes and only 10 INTs could possibly put his
team in a January 1st bowl game.
Well, there they are, my pre-season top 10. As
you can see, I deliberately omitted some teams
that have garnered strong support in the football
annuals. Most notable of the overrated teams in
my opinion are Tennessee and good old Nebraska,
for whom I see more of a rebound, as opposed to
a reload.
Take care, Jimmy V.
Comments are appreciated at www.jimmyvaccaro.com
or vaccarosports@lvcm.com.
|